The Ghana cedi is projected to close the year at GH¢11.45 against the US dollar on the interbank market.
This is according to IC Research, one of Ghana’s leading economic research institutions, which anticipates enhanced price discovery in the months ahead as foreign exchange market rates are allowed to converge.
“While we continue to expect the interbank US dollar–Ghana cedi rate to close full year 2025 below our estimated fair value, we reiterate the possibility for interbank levels to steadily rise towards our revised FY2025 midpoint forecast of GH¢10.95/USD, with the forecast ceiling at GH¢11.45/USD,” the firm stated.
Currently, the local currency is trading at GH¢10.40 to the US dollar on the interbank market but is selling at over GH¢12 on the retail market.
IC Research noted that although the International Monetary Fund (IMF) commended the Bank of Ghana’s efforts to stabilise price levels and the exchange rate, the Fund expressed concern about the central bank’s strong presence in the forex market.
“Our estimates show year-to-date FX sales of US$4.6 billion on the interbank market by the BoG as of 7 July 2025, while concurrently accumulating FX reserves through a strategic tweak to the domestic gold purchase programme,” it said.
“This appears to have created a significant divergence between the interbank rate of GH¢10.35/USD and retail market levels above GH¢12.0/USD, with the latter closer to our estimated fair value of GH¢12.2/USD,” it added.
Unsurprisingly, the IMF recommended that the BoG reduce its footprint in the forex market, allowing for greater exchange rate flexibility and the adoption of an internal foreign exchange intervention policy framework.
“In view of this recommendation, we believe the BoG’s decision to extend the FX delivery tenor from 2-day Forwards to 7-day Forwards since 11 June 2025 was partly in line with the Fund’s proposal,” IC Research concluded.
Source: Joy Business
