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How a US-China trade war could hurt us all

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What happens when the world’s two biggest economies go to war?

Ok, so it’s not a real war – but the US and China are at the beginning of a trade war – and no-one knows just how bad it could get.

So here’s how a US-China trade war could hurt us.

Tit-for-tat

A list of Chinese products will be hit with a 25% tariff from Friday – effectively making them 25% more expensive for US consumers.

Technology goods like Chinese-made semiconductor chips. They’re found in consumer products used in everyday life such as televisions, personal computers, smartphones, and cars

A wide variety of products ranging from plastics, nuclear reactors and dairy-making equipment

According to the Petersen Institute of International Economics more than 90% of the products on the US tariffs list are made up of intermediate inputs or capital equipment. That means stuff that you need as raw material to make other products – so it could have a knock-on effect on many other goods too.

What the US really wants to target though are things produced under China’s Made in China 2025 policy.

In retaliation to the US moves, China has hit these sectors:

American agriculture – hitting at American farmers and ranchers, a political vote bank that US President Trump relies on. Some 91% of the 545 products

China is placing a tariff on are from the agriculture sector

The car sector – companies such as Tesla and Chrysler manufacture in the US and their products going into China would be affected

Medical products; coal; petroleum (but only marginally).

‘Getting scary’

And while Beijing is really good at the chest-thumping, fist-wagging rhetoric, the reality on the ground is much more serious.

“Our industry contacts in China have said things like ‘seems pretty serious,’ or ‘this is getting scary’, even ‘I think there’s a chance of things getting worse’,” says Vinesh Motwani of Silk Road Research.

He’s recently returned from a trip to the mainland, and as part of his research routinely talks to China-based firms to gauge business sentiment there.

These worries, he says, can translate into “increased caution and lower confidence” for businesses as they try to navigate the uncertainty ahead.

Which means: expansion plans could be put on ice. And if Chinese expansion is on hold that has a direct impact on the rest of us in Asia.

Shift manufacturing?

Obviously the US and China’s economies are most at risk, although they’re not the only ones.

According to DBS’s chief economist Taimur Baig, an all-out trade war could shave 0.25% off the GDP of both economies this year. It gets much worse next year – with both countries seeing a reduction in growth of about 0.5% or more.

Mr Baig adds that “considering China grows at 6-7% and the US at 2-3%, we believe the damage would be greater to the US than on China”.

But countries like South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan could all be affected too because of disruption to supply chains.

China sources a lot of components that go into its finished goods from these other countries. As Nick Marro of the Economist Intelligence Unit points out, “any dent in China’s export flows will inevitably affect” these other countries.

The case could be made for manufacturing to shift to these other countries – and for them to take advantage of selling to the US – but that shift would take time, and it’s hard to see who could match China’s scale.

Ultimately, the US consumer will end up paying more for these products.

China backlash US firms operating in China could also face a “China backlash”.

Elon Musk’s electric car firm Tesla, for instance, has already highlighted just how important the Chinese market is to it.

But it imports all of its products to China and so would see a 25% tariff placed on its cars sold in China – on top of the 15% tax imported vehicles already face there.

This would inevitably push up prices for Tesla in China, making its vehicles less competitive than they already are, relative to others.

Sino-US tensions could also end up “delaying or preventing” Tesla’s ability to release its full potential in China, according to Silk Road Research.

How bad can it get? It’s the question I ask every business person I meet, and the answer is typically always the same: nobody knows.

If history is any guide, then past trade wars have led to deep economic malaise. In particular the US Smoot-Hawley tariffs enacted in 1930 are thought to have inspired a trade war, and led to a massive decline in global trade.

As one study points out, world trade fell by 66% from 1929 to 1934, while US exports and imports to and from Europe each also fell by about two-thirds.

While no one is saying we’re there yet, businesses are getting more concerned than they have been in the past, especially because of all the uncertainty.

The tit-for-tat mentality between Beijing and Washington could just end up antagonising both sides to a point where they cannot climb down from their hostile positions for fear of losing face.

“You start with protectionism and isolationism,” says Victor Mills, chief executive of Singapore’s International Chamber of Commerce. “And then you don’t just beggar your neighbour, you beggar yourself.”

What many business people are hoping of course, is that this sound and fury is just the start of another series of negotiations.

But the worry is that if it’s not – it will escalate, and everybody will be the poorer. And that includes you and me.

 

Source: BBC.com

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SHOWBIZ KONKONSAH

Former Ghanaian dance champion Alex Ofori passes on

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The late Alex Ofori was a former Ghanaian National Dance Champion

•The late Alex Ofori was a choreographer and a fashion model

• He became much popular after winning the Ghana National Dance competition in 1988

• The late dancer has been eulogized by popular Ghanaian media personality, Mr. Kwasi Kyei Darkwa

Former Ghanaian National Dance Champion, Alex Ofori, has reportedly passed on.

The late Alex Ofori who shot to fame after winning the Ghana National Dance competition in 1988, has worked with the likes of Slim Buster, who won the championship in 1987, Ebenezer Ako Nai who also won in 1987, Terry Ofosu Bright, aka Sir Robot who won in 1989 and Reggie Rockstone among others.

Announcing his demise on Facebook on June 16, 2021, veteran broadcaster Kwesi Kyei Darkwa (KKD) stated that the dance champion brought so much excitement and joy to Ghanaians whenever he got on a stage or dance floor.

He also eulogized him paving the way for new dance talents the country currently possesses.

“Rest in peace ALEX OFORI, Former National Dance Champion- Great Embassy Double Do, Dancer-Choreographer & Fashion Model. You brought so much excitement & joy to our motherland wherever you got on a stage or dance floor. With the likes of World Dance Champion Adjetey Sowah, unique breakdancer Reginald Osei aka Reggie Rockstone, Show dancers Firekiller, Como Basto, Carlos Alberto, Tee Pee & many enthusiastic young talents of the 80s & 90s, you helped turn what was your passion into a mainstay of live shows & television entertainment. Today, those talents you shared with the world just for fun, your labor of love has become a popular profession.”

“You & your colleagues paved the way for the talent we enjoy in dance choreography at national events & in numerous music videos. Life: How unpredictable you are. & how fragile we are,” he wrote on Facebook.

It can be recalled that the late Alex Ofori once represented Ghana at the World Dance Championship series at the London Hippodrome.

Read the post below:

Source: www.ghanaweb.com

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SHOWBIZ KONKONSAH

VIDEO: Kennedy Agyapong celebrates 61st birthday in Dubai with his 16 daughters

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Assin Central MP, Kennedy Ohene Agyapong celebrating his birthday with wife and children

• The Assin Central MP was swamped by his beautiful daughters at his 61st birthday party in Dubai

• Kennedy Agyapong turned 61 on June 16, 2021

• The lawmaker received and unwrapped some expensive gifts from his children

Assin Central MP, Kennedy Ohene Agyapong, joined his daughters in Dubai to celebrate his 61st birthday on June 16, 2021.

In a video making rounds on social media, the outspoken lawmaker was captured in a plush restaurant, swamped by his beautiful daughters and wife.

With the exception of Arnell, who is alleged to have been ‘disowned’ by Mr. Agyapong, the rest of his 16 beautiful daughters were seen seated at a dinner table with their father having a nice time.

Beaming with smiles, Mr. Agyapong one-by-one unwrapped the gifts presented to him by his children.

The all-white birthday party was climaxed with a kiss from his wife.

Watch the video below:

Source: www.ghanaweb.com

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GENERAL NEWS

One shot as sand winners clash with Okyeman taskforce at Adeiso

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Sand winners and Taskforce clash in Adeiso

One person has been shot in a clash between the Okyeman Environmental Protection task force and sand winners at Adeiso in the West Akyem Municipality in the Eastern region.

The task force stormed the Tank Akuraa community near Adeiso, arrested and handcuffed one Osae Kwame, a sand winner and threw him into a Nissan Pick Up but were pursued by the youth who rescued him.

Later the taskforce members attacked Summertide sand winning Company site at Obeng Yaw village, also near Adeiso, amidst the firing of guns and arrested five workers and shot one other.

Armed police responded to the distress calls about the incidents but the Taskforce failed to stop when signalled by Police.

They were given a hot chase but to no avail.

Information spread through the Communities leading to the youth mounting roadblocks and attacked the task force.

Sensing danger Okyeman Mponuahene, Barima Twum Tabriade and Okyeman Akwansrahene went to the Adeiso police station to seek refuge in a Jeep Patriot SUV with registration number GS9835-19 which had three tyres deflated.

The angry youth and sand winners massed up at the Police station seeking the release of the two chiefs for instant justice.

Due to the tension, Adeiso District Police command called on the Divisional Command for reinforcement to contain the situation.

A search in the Jeep SUV which belongs to Akwansrahene, Baffour Sarpong, contained one AK 47 assault rifle with 3 magazines and 7 Pump-action cartilages.

The five (5 ) suspects including the two chiefs were whisked to Asamankese Divisional Headquarters by the reinforcement team where they were granted Police enquiry bail.

The Public Relations Officer of the Eastern Regional Police Command, DSP Ebenezer Tetteh confirmed the incident.

He said the Regional Police Command has dispatched a team to the troubled area to help resolve the matter to restore calm.

Okyeman Environmental Protection Taskforce was formed over a decade ago to fight against illegal mining, illegal sand winning and illegal chainsawing.

Source: starrfm.com.gh

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